Vjerojatno su se neki od vas upitali "pa gdje je, što se s njim dešava?" - nije se desilo ništa loše, ali ni zanimljivo, ne volim oproštajne poruke pa je nisam želio napisati, posebno zato što bi postojala velika mogučnost da nakon oproštajne poruke objavim novi tekst jer "blog je droga, nikako prestati gubiti vrijeme". :)

Razlog izostanka je vrlo jednostavan, nakon cca. 2g aktivnog praćenja burze došlo je do "zamora materijala", umorilo me svakodnevno nerviranje, mozganje i praćenje cijena iz sekunde u sekundu, od 10h do 16h na našoj, a zatim do 22h na US burzi, jednostavno sam se trebao odmoriti, pobjeći do svega i skupiti energiju za idući uzlet. ;)

Kako dugo nisam pratio burzu bacio sam pogled na promjene, GOOG je došao skoro do $620, izvrsno, kad se sjetim koliko sam ga čekao dolar po dolar, a zatim jedan dan otvorim screener nakon 9mj. i vidim da je narastao preko $130 po dionici. I stanje na HR burzi je poprilično zadovoljavajuće, pogledao sam excel file iz virtualne burze forumaša poslovnog dnevnika, s obzirom na izvor zvuči neozbiljno, ali nije tako, taj excel file možda i najbolje/najbrže dočarava što se događalo na burzi ove godine tj. prvih 10 mjeseci ove godine.

 
Pogrešni razlozi zbog kojih mali dioničar sam trguje dionicama:

1.) smatra da je pametniji i sposobniji od fond managera (npr. Floričića i Purka)

2.) želi se obogatiti preko noći ("na burzi se vrlo lako brzo obogatiti")

3.) očekuje da će navedene ciljeve najlakše i najbrže ostvariti daytradeanjem

 
Ispravni razlozi zbog kojih mali dioničar sam trguje dionicama:

1.) investiranje i praćenje burze mu je hobi

2.) ima viška vremena i novca (i nema dugova)

3.) želi naučiti više o investiranju i kretanju marketa

Pravi dobitnici višemjesečnog nadmetanja za dionice Plive su, sudeći po iznimno visokom postotku prihvata Barrove ponude za preuzimanje, sada već bivši dioničari. Dok Barr i te kako treba zasukati rukave i (svojim dioničarima) opravdati plaćenu cijenu, bivšim dioničarima Plive ostaje samo slatka briga: kako reinvestirati novac? Može li se na hrvatskom tržištu naći nova dobra investicija? Premda je prvi val (kada je dionice kupovao Actavis) već prilično podigao cijene dionica, očekivanja su i dalje visoka. Iako se, kada je riječ o kapitalu koji će se vratiti na domaće dioničko tržište završetkom preuzimanja, prije radi o stotinama milijuna kuna nego o milijardama, za hrvatsko tržište ni taj drugi, manji val neće biti beznačajan. Naprotiv…

Preuzimanjem Plive i hrvatsko tržište zatvara svoje prvo (poslijeratno) poglavlje, svojih prvih 10 ozbiljnijih godina. Naime, 1996. godine, prije točno deset godina, uvrštenje dionica Plive na Zagrebačku i Londonsku burzu zapravo je započelo ozbiljnije uređeno trgovanje dionicama u Hrvatskoj. Kao i sada, na odlasku s burzovne pozornice, Pliva je i 1996. dala velik impulst rastu cijena (svih) dionica. Uspješan plasman dionica u Londonu tada je potaknuo veliku burzovnu euforiju. Nakon razdoblja koje su obilježili "lanci sreće" i "financijski inženjering", burza je bila, činilo se, siguran način kako brzo zaraditi velik novac. Dobro se prisjetiti da je dionica Podravke najvišu cijenu iz 1996. nadmašila tek deset godina kasnije, 2006. godine. I kupci dionica Istraturista s kraja 1996. trebali su čekati punih 10 godina da se dionica vrati na istu razinu. Znate li da najviša zaključna cijena dionica Kraša iz 1996. godine još nije nadmašena? Uspijeh Plive u to je vrijeme na tržištu izazvao iracionalan optimizam na krilima kojeg su sve vodeće dionice postale izgledni kandidati za kotaciju Londonske burze, sposobne ponoviti Plivin uspjeh. No, dogodilo se upravo suprotno. Burzovni "balon" brzo se ispuhao, a cijene većine dionica u narednih godinu-dvije pale su do najnižih ikad zabilježenih razina. U rasprodaji 1999. godine mnoge dionice nisu uspjevale naći kupce ni za desetinu cijene koju su postizale samo tri godine ranije. Danas je lako rezimirati: burzovnom uspjehu Plive približila se samo dionica Zagrebačke banke. Sve ostale domaće dionice i dalje su, što se burze tiče, u manjoj ili većoj mjeri - tek potencijalno dobre, ali uglavnom nedorečene investicijske priče. 

Aktualna dionička euforija ima sličnosti s euforijom otprije deset godina koje se današnji investitori, "neki novi klinci", uglavnom i ne sjećaju. Vrijeme je i kod onih starijih zaliječilo bolna iskustva i gubitke. Tako danas ponovo, kao i prije deset godina, cijene diktiraju glasine i iracionalna očekivanja. Poslovanje i fundamentalna vrijednost ustuknuli su pred bajkovitim "perspektivama" koje gotovo sve dionice iz pepeljuga u tili čas pretvaraju u princeze…

*ulomak iz kolumne Josipa Galineca, vlasnika TO-ONE, objavljene u "Investitoru", financijskom magazinu poslovnog dnevnika, br. 3. (studeni 2006).  

Discipline

One of the key factors mentioned by almost every good trader is discipline. Discipline, as you might imagine, takes a variety of forms. For beginning traders, one of the toughest challenges is to keep trades small. Believe it or not, more than a few top traders don’t allow any one position to account for more than 1% of their total portfolio. Linda Bradford Raschke, one of the traders featured in The New Market Wizards, attributes much of her success to managing risk in this way. As a result, her average trade, at the time the interview, had a profit of only $450. At the same time, her average loss was only $200. Keeping her position small didn’t impede her profit though. By remaining disciplined, she earned over $500,000 trading that year.

Limiting Your Losses

Another aspect of trading that involves discipline is limiting your losses. Here, there isn’t a magic formula that works for everyone. Instead, you have to determine your own threshold for pain. Whatever you decide, stick to it. One of the biggest mistakes people make is to take a position with the intention that it be a short-term trade. Then, when the position goes against them, they make a seamless and unprofitable transition from trader to long-term investor. More than a few people have gone broke waiting for the trend to reverse so they could get out at break-even. If you are going to trade, you have to be willing to accept losses–and keep them limited!

Another mistake novice traders make is getting out of profitable positions too quickly. if the position is going well, it isn’t healthy to worry about giving it all back. If that’s a concern, you might want to liquidate part of the position or use options to lock in your profit. Then, let the rest of it ride. Mark Ritchie, one of the founders of CRT, an extraordinarily profitable Chicago-based trading company, once kept a trade on for 4 years because it kept working for him. Not every trader has that kind of patience. And not every trader makes as much money as Mark Ritchie.

It isn’t uncommon for people to view trading as a fast-paced, exciting endeavor. Fast-paced? Absolutely. Exciting? Now that’s a matter of opinion.

The Importance of Remaining Even-Tempered

More than a few traders interviewed in The New Market Wizards emphasize the importance of remaining unemotional and even-tempered. To these people, trading is a game of strategy that has nothing to do with emotion. Emotion, for these traders, would only cloud their judgment.

In the book, Charles Faulkner, a Neuro-Linguistic Programming trainer talks about one trader who was extremely emotional. Although Faulker was able to show him how to be less emotional and more detached, it became quickly apparent didn’t enjoy being emotionally unattached. He found it boring. Unfortunately, emotion involvement in trading comes at a high price. Before too long, that trader went broke. The morale of the story is simple: If you insist on being emotionally attached to your trading, be prepared to be physically detached from your money.

Acceptance and Responsibility

One of the most interesting interviews in the book was with Robert Krausz, a member of the British Hypnotist Examiners Council who specializes in working with traders. According to Krausz, one of the biggest mistakes traders can make is to agonize over mistakes. To beat yourself up for something you wish you hadn’t done is truly counterproductive in the long run. Accept what happens, learn from it and move on.

For the same reason, it’s absolutely crucial to take responsibility for your trades and your mistakes. If you listen to someone else’s advice, remember that you, and you alone, are responsible if you act on the advice.

Another Way to View Losses

Perhaps the most striking example of emotional distance in trading mentioned in Schwager’s book was attributed to Peter Steidlmayer who reacts to positions that go against thinking to himself, “Hmmm, look at that.” If only we could all be that calm!

Of all the emotions we could possibly experience, fear and greed are possibly the two most damaging.

Fear

Of all the emotions that can negatively impact your trading, fear may be the worst. According to many of the traders interviewed in The New Market Wizards, trading with scared money is an absolute recipe for disaster. If you live with the constant fear that the position will go against you, you are committing a cardinal sin of trading. Before long, fear will paralyze your every move. Trading opportunities will be lost and losses will mount. To help deal with your fear, keep in mind what fear is:

Confidence

The flip side of fear is confidence. This is a quality that all great traders have in abundance. Great traders don’t worry about their positions or dwell on short-term losses because they know they will win over the long term. They don’t just think they’ll win. And they don’t just believe they’ll win. They KNOW they’ll win. As Linda Bradford Raschke put it, “It never bothered me to lose, because I always knew that I would make it right back.” That’s what it takes.

To Talk or Not to Talk

For many traders, sharing opinions and taking a particular stance only magnifies the stress. As a result, they begin to fear being wrong as much as they fear losing money. Although it may be one of the hardest lessons to learn, the ability to change your opinion without changing your opinion of yourself is an especially valuable skill to acquire. If that’s too hard to do, the alternative may prove much easier: Don’t talk about your trades.

Greed

Greed is a particularly ugly word in trading because it is the root cause of more than a few problems. It’s greed that often leads traders to take on positions that are too large or too risky. It’s greed that causes people to watch once profitable positions get wiped out because they never locked in profits and instead watched the market take it all back.

Part of the remedy for greed is to have, and stick to, a trading plan. If you faithfully set and adjust stop points, you can automate your trading to take the emotion out of the game. For example, let’s say you are long the 50 calls in a stock that rises more rapidly than you ever expected. With the stock at $77, the dilemma is fairly obvious. If you sell the calls, you lock in the profit but you eliminate any additional upside potential. Rather than sell the calls, you might buy an equal number of 75 puts. The $25 profit per call that you just locked in will more than offset the cost of the puts. At the same time, you’ve left yourself open to additional upside profit.

Gradual Entry and Exit

Another strategy successful traders use is to gradually get in and out of positions. In other words, rather than putting on a large trade all at once, buy a few contracts and see how the position behaves. When it’s time to get out, you can use the same strategy. Psychologically, the problem people have implementing this strategy is that it takes away the “right” and “wrong” of the decision making process. It’s impossible to be completely right or completely wrong using this strategy because, by definition, some of the trades will be put on at a better price than others.

Awareness & Instincts

For floor traders especially, instincts often play a crucial role in trading. To truly appreciate this, just close your eyes and imagine making trades in a fast market with dozens if not hundreds of people screaming around you. In this environment, it becomes absolutely essential to maintain a high level of awareness about everything going on around you. Then, to have the confidence to pull the trigger when necessary, you have to trust your instincts. It’s absolutely amazing to see how some floor traders, even in a busy market, know exactly who is making what trades. For these traders, expanded awareness is often a necessary prerequisite to fully developing and trusting their instincts.

The same is true for off-the-floor traders as well. Watching how markets behave and developing a feel for the price fluctuations is truly time well spent. Unfortunately, in this era of technology, people have become so removed from their natural instincts that many are no longer in touch with their intuition. This is unfortunate because intuition functions as a wonderful inner guidance system for those who know how to use it.

One trader interviewed by Jack Schwager in The New Market Wizards relies so heavily on his intuition that he didn’t want his name in the book for fear his clients would be uncomfortable with his strategy and move their money elsewhere. Speaking anonymously, he described in detail how he establishes a rhythm and “gets in sync” with the markets. In this way, he has learned to distinguish between what he “wants to happen” and what he “knows will happen.” In his opinion, the intuition knows what will happen. With this knowing, the ideal trade is effortless. If it doesn’t feel right, he doesn’t do it.

When he doesn’t feel in sync with the markets, this trader will virtual trade until he feels back in rhythm. But even here, he keeps his ego and emotion out of it. His definition of out of sync is completely quantifiable. Being wrong three times in a row is out of sync. Three mistakes and it’s back to the virtual trading. Now there’s a strategy almost everyone can benefit from.

Veliki slom burze 1929. godine (Black Thursday, 24. listopada 1929) je jedan od dva velika sloma koji su zadesili US burzu, a smatra se najvećim slomom u povijesti US burze. Drugi se dogodio 19. listopada 1987. godine, poznat i kao black monday (crni ponedjeljak). Internet bubble bursting koji se dogodio tokom 2000, 2001 odnosno 2002 godine se zbog njegovog obima i vremena u kojem se proteže ne smatra slomom burze, makar je i to, imho, upitno.

"Black Thursday" - crni četvrak (24.10.1929), početak najveće krize u povijesti US burze.

 "Black Monday" - crni ponedjeljak (19.10.1987) - Dow je pao za 22.6%, što je najveći dnevni pad u povijesti US burze. 

Uzrok krize, tj. najčešće prikazano kao uzrok krize je rasprsnuće ekonomskog bubble-a koji je prethodio, banke su šakom i kapom odobravale kredite investitorima koji su na krilima gospodarskog rasta u dionicama vidjeli priliku za brzom zaradom, što je bila i istina sve dok bubble nije prsnuo.

Ali, kao pokazatelj bubblea ili “pregrijane ekonomije” tj. onog od čega nas i (omraženi) Alan Greenspan želi sačuvati se navodi P/E od 12-14, a tokom 1929te se čak spustio s 15 na 10.

Danas veliki broj kompanija ima P/E i veći od 100, prosjek je iznad 30!

Kao drugi razlog se navodi “Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act”, odredba po kojoj se uvodi velik porez-tarifa (60%) na 3200 uvoznih proizvoda, što je potaklo zemlje koje su izvozile u US na identičan odgovor (podizanje poreza na robu iz US), a sve zajedno je rezultiralo recesijom tj. velikom ekonomskom krizom. Ipak, neki povjesničari tvrde da je taj akt donesen nakon velikog crasha, te da u skladu s tim nije mogao izazvati isti.

Nego, kako za cilj ovog teksta nisam zamislio nabrajanje podataka i obrazovanje (za to imate wikipediu), vratimo se osnovnoj misli koja glasi - “što je precijenjenost?”.

U trenutku kad se sve urušilo, 24. listopada 1929. godine, Dow Jones je iznosio 299 bodova, te je kao posljedica precijenjenosti tj. bubble burst-a, u slijedećih par godina pao ispod 80 bodova. Ne za 80 bodova, nego na 80 bodova. Dow Jones se jučer, 11. siječnja 2006 zatvorio na 11,043.44 bodova.

Koliko će Dow Jones iznositi za 50 godina? Da li nas ubrzo očekuje sljedeći slom burze? Slom burze je označio početak velike krize US gospodarstva (”Great Depression”), koja je nastupila 30-tih godina 20-tog stoljeća, tj. do 1929 do 1939. godine. Sam kraj sloma burze se dogodio mnogo ranije, smatra se da se to dogodilo još u travnju 1930 kad je S&P index skočio na 25.92, s obzirom da je na kraju 1929 iznosio 21.45. Za vrijeme depresije je došlo do naglog povećanja broja nezaposlenih, s cca. 3% na preko 25%, u skladu s tim se smanjila potrošnja što je uzrokovalo 50% pad prodaje GM-ovih automobila, odnosno, zatvorio se krug. Kriza je završila tek 1938-39, kad je Roosveltov plan poznatiji kao “New deal” počeo donositi korist, s tim planom je započeto 1933., ali je sve do 1937. smatran promašenim tj. smatrano je da guši razvoj poduzetništva zbog toga što je Keynes tvrdio da privatni poduzetnicima nije stalo do zapošljavanja već do čiste zarade, pa se zaposlenost pokušavala postići radnim akcijama i drugim oblicima državnih ulaganja.

Mora li doći do “korekcije”?

Pa skoro sve dionice, odnosno zbroj vrijednosti dionica iznosi više no što kompanija koja je izdala iste ima “opipljive” vrijednosti (u nekretninama, strojevima, automobilima,…). Da li je Google “precijenjen”? DA. Da li je Rambus, koji je danas ostvario 14% gain “precijenjen”? Da, ima P/E preko 110, a prosjek P/E tog sektora (Internet Information Providers) je 36. Znači li to da ne treba ulagati u spomenute dionice?

Ne zaboravimo da su iste prognoze i fundamente imale i kad su vrijedile 20% manje nego danas, posebno Google.

Vrijeme nakon 1920. do nesretne 1929. je bilo ekonomski izuzetno povoljno vrijeme, fundamentalni pokazatelji su ukazivali na rast gospodarstva, “real income” je od 1921 do 1923 porastao za 10.5%, od 1923 do 1929 za 3.4% na godinu. Od 1923 do 1929 su cijene proizvoda široke potrošnje pale za 0.9% na godinu, ukazujući na stvaran rast i stabilnu ekonomiju. Factory payrolls index je u rujnu 1929. iznosio 111, all-time high, u listopadu se spustio na 110, što ne također najbolji rezultat u povijesti ako isključimo rujan. U prvih 9 mjeseci 1929. je 1,436 kompanija objavilo da će isplatiti veće dividende nego prilikom prijašnje isplate, samo u rujnu je takvu objavu dalo 193 kompanije. Financijske vijesti su bile izrazito pozitivne.

Također, ako je uzrok sloma stvarno precijenjenost, najveći svjetski ekonomisti bi valjda to i uvidjeli te spasili svoje guzice, ali, Irving Fisher, jedan od vodećih US ekonomista je bio poprilično bullish sve do sloma u kojem je izgubio cjelokupno vlasništvo uključujući i kuću.

U Engleskoj, John Mayhard Keynes, možda i najveći svjetski ekonomist u toku prve polovice 20-tog stoljeća, je također izgubio velik dio imovine.

 
Prognoze koje su predhodile velikom slomu:

• “We will not have any more crashes in our time.” - John Maynard Keynes in 1927
• “There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity.” - Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
• “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months.” - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
• “We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices.” - Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
• “This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan… that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.” - R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929.